Inundation Distribution Of The Study Area - 1542 Words

3. Methods Since the study area is surrounded by two major rivers the vast plains and fans are suspected to contain some level water logging. For this study the inundation distribution of the study area is taken from PNG Resource Information System (PNGRIS, 2008). The data is in polygon shape file format and coded with classes of inundation types from ‘tidal flooding, permanent flooding to the least as ‘no flooding’. For this study ‘no flooding’ level is excluded. According to PNG forestry logging practices, swamp forest are not to be logged. Swampy forests must be avoided as much as possible during logging operations. However, for this study it used to for the post-classification process purposely for refining classified swamp forest†¦show more content†¦The target class was forest class. In level 2 eight (8) classes were used (Table 1) based on the PNG forest base map of 2012 and forest inventory mapping system (FIMS) classification (McAlpine and Quigl ey, 1998). Level 2 is the lowest classification level achieved through the post-classification process. Additional classes are applied to describe the selectively harvested areas which are identified when conducting the supervised classification of the preceding years (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015). Above-ground biomass sites will be treated as secondary training sets to transformed LULC maps to AGB maps for carbon change assessment as one option. The other option is to be used after the LULC goes through change detection process (spatially). Supervised classification method was applied to Vailala Block 3 Landsat AGP images from 1995 to 2015. This method allows the user to identify training areas that are used to teach the image on what pixel range to be classified according to user LULC descriptions (Samanta et al., 2011). For this study the parametric method know as maximum likelihood under the decision rule statistical approach was used to run all the supervised classification from 1995 and 2015. Table 1. Land use and land cover types with codes Post-classification or reassessment of a classed image is performed to refine the classified image. YearShow MoreRelatedThe Sea Level Of Bangladesh1548 Words   |  7 Pagesimmensely negative (Cazenave and Nicholls 2010).For example, based on national studies, a 1 m rise could cause losses of about 9.5 million tons of rice in Bangladesh (Mimura and Nicholls 2008). Rice is the staple crop of half of world’s population and it is the most major staple sustenance for Bangladesh. Sea level Rise will result in a food crisis in some regions of Bangladesh especially southern sub-regions as these areas are most vulnerable to flooding due to sea level rise; hence, rice productionRead MoreTsunamis: How Oregon Can Better Prepare for Cascadia Essay1295 Words   |  6 Pages Tsunami hazard assessment in Oregon started with an inundation simulation in the Siletz Bay. Various parameters were tested with different inundation estimates and run-up from past tsunami deposits (Priest, 2001, 55 ). Inundation maps were then created furthermore in the Oregon Building Code, Oregon limited construction of new important or hazardous buildings in tsunami inundation zones indicated by the inundation maps. Zones that these maps are based on use the Cascadia event in 1700 as a â€Å"mostRead MoreGlobal Warming : Climate Change1592 Words   |  7 Pageset al., studies indicate that global temperature increased 0.70 to 0.75ââ€" ¦C during 1910 to 2009 [6]. Though forecasts vary widely, IPCC third assessment report (IPCC TAR) demonstrates that the best estimate for average temperature changes of the earth is 0.6 to 4 ââ€" ¦ C at the end of 21 century [3]. Global warming has wide-ranging effects on many aspects of human life and brought severe environmental problems, for instance, sea level rising and coastal flooding, changing rainfall distribution, alterationRead MoreEssay about GIS Analysis in Flood Assessment and Modeling2648 Words   |  11 Pageskey factor to prevent the loss of lives (Graham, 1999). Therefore, adequate prediction capability is essential to mitigate flooding damages and establish flood-warning systems. Floods have a complex spatial and temporal dynamic that motivates their study. The spatial dimension of floods ranges from the local to the regional scale, while the temporal dimension varies from slow floods (days) to flash floods (minutes). The spatial extent, variability and magnitude of floods has been addressed using GeographicRead MoreGlobal Warming Has A Effect On The Size Of The Vector Population912 Words   |  4 Pagesresulted in high rates of illness and death.12 Studies have shown that global warming has changed the distribution, intensity of transmission and seasonality of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.10 Correlation between inter-annual variability in temperature and malaria transmission has been observed in Africa.10 In Kenya and Ethiopia, rainfall and high maximum temperature greater than 34 °C has been associated with increasing incidence of malaria.10 However, studies show no association between global warmingRead MoreEssay on The Effect of Climate Change on Mari time Zones2018 Words   |  9 PagesDeveloped countries remain most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. For countries like the Marshall Island, with atoll islands situated just a few meters high from sea level, any uncontrolled sea-level rise has the potential to submerge land areas. Furthermore, climate change impacts could include increased tropical cyclone activities and coastal erosion. Coral bleaching and ocean acidification due to warming also have the potential to affect tourism, fisheries and agriculture, and the abilityRead MoreDevelopment Of Off Shore Wave Generator Systems And Integrating Into Disaster Management Systems Essay2057 Words   |  9 Pageswhich can give a few hours to days warning to help mitigate the severity of natural disasters on human life. . Some of the calamities of note have been the Tsunami of 2004, Bangladesh and Orissa floods, earthquakes in Nepal and Pakistan, and recent inundation of Chennai due to weather and bad flood management. A SAARC comprehensive Framework on disaster management was formulated in alignment with the Hyogo Framework (2005-2015). In addition to the broad objectives of disaster management and cooperationRead MoreMorphology of Rural Settlements in Malda4547 Words   |  19 PagesKey Words: Village, Morphological structure, Geographical landscapes, landuse, The Malda district. Introduction: Settlement morphology is primarily concerned with the lay-out, plan and internal structure of the settlements. It not only views settled area in terms of physical space but identifies its various components in respect of socio-economic space which has its direct bearing in controlling the arrangement of buildings, patterns of streets and fields and functional characteristics of settlementsRead MoreStreams Tech Inc Case Study2102 Words   |  9 PagesClient: Strategy and Planning Unit, State House, the Republic of Sierra Leone Type: Flood Management Streams Tech conducted a detailed study to develop the Stormwater Drainage Master Plan for Freetown, Sierra Leone. The lack of flood management measures and adequate conveyance capacity of the existing drainage system regularly caused flooding in the heavily urbanized areas. Streams Tech personnel installed hydro-meteorological equipment to collect data; processed an extensive array of satellite-basedRead MoreEssay on Use of Geographic Data in Natural Disasters2437 Words   |  10 Pagesothers to provide a quick response to the disaster areas (Herold et al., 2005). Kunkel et al. (1999) suggest that there is strong scientific evidence of an increase in extreme precipitation events in particular regions, whilst water shortages are becoming more apparent in other regions, which indicates that weather driven natural disasters will surely become more frequent, resulting in the use of Geographic Data in mapping and monitoring disaster areas could not be more important or significant.

The Bright Side Of Social Networking - 1606 Words

Hamad Yousef Professor: Joanne Martin English 113B 12 Feb 2015 The bright side of social Networking Social Networks are actually becoming such services and platforms in the modern era, which help one to connect people across the world. They have actually changed the social lives and making them connected to those who have similar interests like their own selves and come from the same background. The way these social networks work is that they one who wants to be part of them would just have to make up their profile and then get connected through one single platform by different means through setting up social groups and linking up with friends and family spread across the globe. It has actually made the way we socialize today totally different, modifying lives and connecting in a manner, which is not direct face to face instead through a platform where everyone could link in. The most known of the social networks which have gained utmost popularity over the years is Facebook. Facebook is the amongst the second largest social networking site and almost half a billion users across t he globe hook up to it every single day. Although social networking can cause lack of self-confidence in real life, it has changed our social lives and the way we connect online influencing our relationship, personal identity and community in positive way. Today social networking sites have become more of a social trend on which one cannot only link up socially, make friends and shareShow MoreRelatedCis 207 Week 2/3 Web Mobile Paper811 Words   |  4 Pagesbusinesses and individuals have been using lately that has become quite popular because of all of its features and â€Å"social media-like† qualities: LinkedIn. The web-based application LinkedIn, founded and developed in 2002 by Reid Hoffman (formerly a board member of the company PayPal), is essentially a social networking tool for businesses and individual use that promotes professional networking. Once a user creates a profile, sort of like they would on Facebook, filing out any information they wouldRead MorePersonal Branding1628 Words   |  7 Pagesinterconnections that grow into a wonderful web community. The Internet has revolutionized career development for personal empowerment, self-management and networking. It allows us to discover, create, communicate and maintain out personal brand for our future. The Web gives us the opportunity to promote â€Å"our brand† for ourselves by joining a social network and using our page as a billboard to advertise our talents and goals. Developing a personal brand makes us a more valuable asset, whether to theRead MoreEssay on The Negative Effects of Too Much Social Media1376 Words   |   6 PagesOver the past few years social media has grown to be a phenomenon in our culture. â€Å"Facebook operates the world’s No. 1 Internet social media network with 1.2 billion users,† and this is just one venue for social media (Oreskovic, 2014). As more people from all age demographics begin to log in to this growing phenomenon, it’s important to step back and take a look at the side of social media that is not so enjoyable. We’ve all heard the quote. â€Å"You can’t have too much of a good thing†, but how trueRead MoreSocial Medi An Advancement Of Civilization960 Words   |  4 PagesSocial Media: An Advancement of Civilization Probably one of the more prevalent arguments in the past five to ten years is that of the effects of social media. Is it something we should avoid? Does it affect our personal lives? Is it a detrimental or advantageous tool for society? There’s a wide variety of opinions on the matter, and while many arguments have been made defending (and attacking) both sides of the controversy, research and experiences show that social media is an invaluable assetRead MoreWhat Is Social Media? Social Media Is An Online Tool That1688 Words   |  7 PagesWhat is social media? Social media is an online tool that is widely used throughout the world. Social media can be used as a source of communication in many ways. Social media can be used in business, for texting purposes and spreading news to others. In America, social media can be a useful tool as a source for communication, but using it long term can cause health problems that may not be preventable. Using social media can cause many me ntal and physical health problems by showing lack of selfRead MoreThe Impact of Social Media on Language1239 Words   |  5 Pagesam a teenager who does occasionally use social media and utilize things like acronyms and emoticons. The next reason why I would like to write this is because, I personally have had people look down on me because of this and I have a personal interest in this subject as well. The reason why I have chosen this is because it is easy to say that social media has had a negative effect on language; therefore, I would like to create an essay that provides both sides of the argument as well as the evidenceRead MoreThe Negative Effects Of Social Media1509 Words   |  7 Pagesbeing millennials, social media is as natural to the people of today as breathing or drinking water. Social media is a â€Å"series of websites and applications that have been designed to allow people to share content and communicate with each other quickly and efficiently† (â€Å" What is Social Media, 2017). A few people have a more confined perspective of social media likening it to mean the same as interacting on sites like Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and others. The power of social media is such thatRead MoreWas Ernest Shackelton a Good Leader?1251 Words   |  6 PagesHilary Murray Scott C. Hammond Management 3800 8 June 2016 Was Ernest Shackleton a Good Leader? The story of Ernest Shackleton is one that defies all odds. The fated quest of the Endurance and its crew is a lesson of perseverance, intuition, social skill, and adaptability. Shackleton’s integrity was challenged before the Endurance even left port in England with the start of World War I. The captain was willing to sacrifice men and ship for the war effort after months of preparation and planningRead MoreImpact of Social Networking Sites on the Youth of India2845 Words   |  12 PagesIMPACT OF SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES(SNS) ON THE YOUTH OF INDIA : A BIRD’S EYE VIEW. Ruchi Sachdev College of Management Studies Kanpur (UP) India Abstract-This paper is focused to find out the answer whether the social networking sites are boon or bane for today’s society.No doubt these SNS provides employment ,marketing ,personal growth ,sharing of information but the most prevalent danger through often involves online predators or individuals. These SNS has great impact on youth of IndiaRead MoreWhat Kind Of Information System Does The School Have?1730 Words   |  7 Pagesanother in a network, in a given time period (usually a second). II. Discuss and evaluate what communication devices that you would recommend to be used for the project. Answer: Communication devices used or highly recommended are; 1. Routers 2. Networking topology And to connect this local network with the other networks to access through internet the network servers are required. III. Discuss and evaluate the different computer networks available and recommend and appropriate one for the project

Historical Problems Free Essays

Woodrow Wilson has been described as â€Å"cold, aloof and often arrogant, but he was not all intellect. † By the time Wilson was elected governor of New Jersey he had never held a political office, and had never taken more than a theorist’s interest in politics. Wilson’s personal view on how the Presidential office should be run is to lead a country rather than to be lead. We will write a custom essay sample on Historical Problems or any similar topic only for you Order Now He believed that a president should act like a prime minister and not be isolated from Congress. Wilson himself dreamed of a utopian society and amongst his intellectual supporters believed that this â€Å"most terrible and disastrous wars† could be countenanced only by perceiving of it as the harbinger of eternal peace. The utopian spirit of the war took concrete form in Wilson’s proposal of a postwar federation of nations, in itself not a utopian scheme but one which, from the first, was freighted with utopian aspirations. Though Wilson may have been an effective war president by delegating responsibilities to those qualified his aspirations for a perfect world and his sentiments of â€Å"peace without victory† obscured his reality. President Wilson presented his ideas for peace in his famous Fourteen Points address on January 8, 1918. Wilson’s chief goal was to have the treaty provide for the formation of a League of Nations. He hoped that the threat of economic or military punishment from League members, including Germany, would prevent future wars. Though Wilson held a prominent role in drafting the Treaty of Versailles, and would later receive the Nobel Peace Prize for, the other major Allies, however, had little interest in honoring either Wilson’s Fourteen Points or all his goals for the League of Nations. The allies had suffered far greater losses and wanted to punish Germany severely. Strong opposition to the treaty developed in the United States. Many Americans disagreed with Wilson’s generous approach to worn-torn Europe. Republicans objected to U. S. commitments to the League of Nations. The U. S. Senate refused to approve the treaty. Also blocking the passage of the League of Nations was the personal and political conflicts between Wilson and Henry Cabot Lodge. Lodge, who was then the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, insisted the specific and limiting changes be ade to protect U. S. interests. Wilson would not compromise. Unable and perhaps unwilling to reach an agreement with Wilson, Lodge used his power and position to ensure the defeat of the treaty—and prevent American participation in the League of Nations. As to whether or not the postwar would have been different if the United States had accepted and entered the League of Nations, it is unl ikely. America’s refusal to join the League, fitted in with her desire to have an isolationist policy throughout the world. Therefore, the League had a final ideal – to end war for good. However, if an aggressor nation was determined enough to ignore the League’s verbal warnings, all the League could do was enforce economic sanctions and hope these worked as it had no chance of enforcing its decisions using military might. Postwar 1920 brought many radical changes to Americans by the advancement in technology, discoveries, and inventions. Pop culture during the 1920’s was characterized by the flapper, automobiles, nightclubs, movies, and jazz. Life moved fast as a new sense of prosperity and freedom emerged at the end of World War 1. The 1920’s gave American’s radio, films, advertisements, and new literature to ponder. 1915 gave us a movie milestone in The Birth of a Nation, produced by D. W. Griffith. American’s were also given notable authors as F. Scott Fitzgerald, Booth Tarkington, Ernest Hemingway, and Sinclair Lewis. Authors of this period struggled to understand the changes occurring in society. While some writers praised the changes others expressed disappointment in the passing of old ways. But not before the printing press had American’s been brought together by shrinking the distances between people and homes. â€Å"Of all the new products put on the market during the decade, none met with more spectacular success than the radio. † The radio brought into American homes commercials, stories, news, music, sports, and advertisement. Improvements in radio broadcasting and radio manufacturing itself quickly became a big business. Along with the increasing availability of free-home entertainment it created a soaring demand for radios. The 1920’s were wrought with many issues of cultural conflict, prejudices, nativism, and moral policing. Widespread abuse of alcohol had been recognized as a serious social problem since the colonial days, in rural America as well as in cities, and â€Å"demon rum† had been long condemned from many Protestant pulpits during the 1920’s. Prohibition was the government’s solution to protect women, children, and families from the effects of abuse of alcohol, in other words, moral policing. Another example of moral policing today can be found in the controversial topic of legalizing marijuana. â€Å"Conversely, their omission in the present debate reflects the unfortunate reality that marijuana prohibition is perpetuated not by science, but rather by emotion and rhetoric. † The topic of nativism can be shown in three primary issues: immigration restriction, the KKK, and the cases of Sacco and Vanzetti. The old culture was generally anti-immigrant and tended to blame many of the problems of urban industrial American on immigrants. During the 1920’s the old culture, which was extremely nativist in attitude, was able to pass several immigration restriction laws which both lowered the number of immigrants to the U. S. and limited the numbers immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe, which the old culture was particularly against. They did this through the quota system, set up in the Emergency Immigration Act of 1921 (and the revised with the 1924 National Origins Act) which established a certain number of immigrants from each country to be allowed into the U. S. per year. Each country’s quota was based on a percentage (3%) of people of that nation in the U. S. in the base year of (1910). The â€Å"rebirth† of the KKK was another sign of the nativism of the 1920’s as this â€Å"new† KKK was not only black, but also anti-Jewish, anti-Catholic and anti-immigrant. So have American’s learned their lesson from the 1920’s and have they changed their attitudes concerning nativism, moral policing, and are we still considered a prejudice country? In the year 2011, do American’s still consider them as being progressive and that they refuse to repeat history? Nativisim and prejudices can still be felt and seen throughout the United States. Our country is still debating nativism in the current situation with illegal immigrants. Newspapers, television shows, the radio, and internet are covered in stories of immigration policies. Our country is still swarmed with prejudices between races, religions, and lifestyles. It is our history to repeat and forget our past mistakes. As stated before, the 1920’s brought many radical changes to America with the advancement in technology, discoveries, and inventions. Pop culture in the 1920’s was characterized by the flapper, automobiles, nightclubs, movies, and music. Life moved fast as a new sense of prosperity and freedom emerged at the end of World War I. In many ways our current era is like that of the 1920’s. Our society is now connected to each other via the internet, and Facebook. On the spot news is even better now with television and radio and better yet the cell phone. Society is overrun with the most current, up-to-date news, even if no one cares what reading or hearing about. We are still a drug crazed and alcohol abusing society with fast cars, outrageous clothes and hairstyles. It just may be that we are going at a faster pace than those in the 1920’s. What can be seen differently is that maybe our morals have diminished in some aspects of society. Not that all society can be defined as a whole, as there are still those in our current society and those of the 1920’s that still and did value self respect, morals, God, and country. Works Cited 1920-1930. 1920’s Literature. 2005. http://www.1920-1930.com/literature. (accessed March 6, 2011. Content, new. Woodrow Wilson. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/wilson/peopleevents/p_lodge.html. (accessed March 6, 2011). Durant, John; Durant Alice. Pictorial History of American Presidents: An informal record of the President’s and their times from George Washington to Lyndon B. Johnson. New York: A.S. Barnes and Company Inc. 1965: 77-78 Learning History. League of Nations. 2011. http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/leagueofnations.htm (accessed March 6, 2011). Leuchgenburg, William E. The Perils of Prosperity 1914-1932. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1993: 349 NORML. Government Private Commissions Supporting Marijuana Law Reform. 2010. http://www.norml.org/index.cfm?Group_ID=3382 (accessed March 6, 2011). Raford. Nativism (as part of the 1920’s culture conflict. 1997. http://www.radford.edu/-shepburn/nativism.htm (accessed March 6, 2011). Time Life Editor s. The Jazz Era, Prohibition.Alexandria. Time Life Inc., 1998: Time Life Editors. Events That Shaped Our Century, Our American Century. Alexandria, 1998: How to cite Historical Problems, Papers

Repression1 Essay Example For Students

Repression1 Essay One morning after Dad finishes his workout, he pulls a fold-out bunk from the wall and lies down, still unclothed. I sit on the floor beside him. I watch his erection. He slaps his tummy with it. He laughs as if he is surprised. Touch it, he says, holding his penis up, offering it to me. I reached over, hold it with my fingers, and let it go, making a thwack I have seen his penis before when it is hard. Hed tried to put it into my bottom. He is going to do it again, isnt he?I dont want to be here, I say. Unlock the door. Please, Daddy.The bunker sits around me, heavy and grotesque. I disappear. (de Milly, http://www.walterdemilly.com/chapter.htm)Who would want to remember this sort of thing? Certainly not the poor child who is recalling it, so why would he? He didnt, for a long time, because of the pain this memory causes, so he did something that many people do with painful memories. He repressed it. Why do people repress memory, and how can it be recalled? This paper hopes to unlo ck a few of the secrets of this strange phenomenon. Firstly, repression, as defined by A Dictionary of Psychoanalysis, is the unconscious and involuntary process by which an unacceptable impulse or idea is rendered unconscious. According to Chip Phillips, repression is where unconsciously you bury painful or embarrassing memories (Phillips, Ch. 3). So what exactly causes someone to repress a memory? As Phillips stated, painful or embarrassing memories. Memories of childhood abuse and sexual abuse are very common (Herman Schatzow, 1-14), as are those of embarrassment (Phillips, lecture). The writer believes that these are valid statements, but believes there needs to be more added to the definition. The writer believes that repression is where a person subconsciously buries memories of shocking acts and events that caused severe and traumatizing pain and/or embarrassment. This definition is very similar to the others, however, the writer believes that almost permanent repression only happens with the most severe memories. Pain and trauma come in varying degrees, and so the writer believes that repression happens in varying degrees as well. For example, if a person trips and falls in a public place, more often than not they will feel embarrassed about it, but they will not repress the memory for a lifetime, more likely the perso n will repress it, only to recall it when someone reminds them of the incident. However, if a person were to walk into a surprise party in the nude with family and friends present, depending on the persons feelings about their body, they may be embarrassed to the point of repressing the memory for years (Phillips, lecture). That allows the individual to move on without having to deal with the pain of the memory. A lot of the information regarding the roots of repression is found in the works and findings of Freud. According to Frederick Crews, a well known writer on Freud, Freuds psychoanalytic theory showed that in his rashness, he preferred the arcane explanation to the obvious one. This allowed Freud to take the repressed memories of his patients, and instead of taking the obvious root of the memory, Freud used his trademark suppositions to say that their memories were something else. By prodding both before and after therapy, Freud devised a way to get his patients to recall non-existent sexual memories that are now labeled false memory syndrome. Crews further suggests that information taken from Freuds work points that the experience of subjects who may or may not be the survivors of sexual abuse depended on whether they actually recalled the previously repressed truth, or succumbed to the Freud-induced fantasy (www.vuw.ac.nz/psyc/fitzMemory/repn.html). The writer believes that this is mainly true, given the writers knowledge of Freudian theories. The writer believes that Freuds fixation on sex probably biased all of his work, and therefore a lot of his studies and patients recalled memories cannot be believed on the whole, but some of their reported memories may be valid. .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .postImageUrl , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:hover , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:visited , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:active { border:0!important; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:active , .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341 .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .uc7de78490de652a27b910c507a828341:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: The Things They Carried by Tim O'Brien EssayHowever, the theory of repression is still believed to reside in the realm of psychoanalysis (Loftus, 1). Basically the repression theory goes like this: Something happens in life that is so shocking that the memory is pushed into some inaccessible corner of the consciousness and sleeps isolated from the rest of mental life (Loftus, 518). As the writers definition stated, repressed memories seem more like memories that were a total shock to the system of the person, physically, emotionally, etc. David Holmes suggests that there are three main elements to the theory of repression: Selective forgetting of materials that cause pain; Not under voluntary control; Material is not lost but stored in unconscious and can be restored to conscious if anxiety associated with the memory is removed (Holmes, 87). The writer accepts these elements, but disagrees with the third element. There can be memories so absolutely horrible and disturbing to the individual that they will never recall the memories, even under hypnosis or in therapy. Other than that, the writer agrees with Holmes suggestions. Now that the writer has explained the some of the theories of memory repression, she will focus on recollection, or recall, of said memories. All memory for the most part is present in the mind, while accessing it may not be easy. There are several ways to successfully recall repressed memories, but the most widely used and known is hypnosis (www.vuw.ac.nz/psyc/fitzMemory/repn.html). Hypnosis is where you are in a more aware state of consciousness, but you appear to be less aware (Phillips, Ch. 7). Once under hypnosis, the patient can be coaxed to go back to when they were. The therapist can use trance logic, a mixture of reality and hallucinations, to get the patient to describe their childhood in great detail. This usually reveals the patients traumatizing event, or it may not. Hypnosis is not just used for repression, though, as it is used to rid bad habits and mold behavior also. Not all people can be put under hypnosis however, so this method only works for those succeptable to the hypnotism (Phillips, Ch. 7). After reviewing all of the material presented here, the writer has come up with several ideas of repression herself. One is that not all repressed memories can be accessed, because if they could, we could actually remember prenatal memories, and thus far there is no known evidence to support prenatal memory that the writer could find. Another idea the writer has realized is that everyone represses memories all the time. Tings happen everyday that we do not remember, and while most arent repressed, merely interference with recollection (Phillips, Ch. 3), there are some that are repressed every day. If a person trips and falls, there is a good chance that they will not remember it the next week, until a friend or associate brings it up. It may be temporarily repressed due to the embarrassment, then recalled as soon as a reminder is brought up. The writer is curious to find evidence to support the recall of very early life, like prenatal memory for example, as it would shed more light o n the topic of repression and memory in general. Bibliography:anonymous. www.vuw.ac.nz/psyc/fitzMemory/repn.html. de Milly, W. http://www.walterdemilly.com/chapter.htm. Herman, J.L. Schatzow, E. (1987). Recovery and Verification of Memories of Childhood Sexual Trauma. Psychoanalytic Psychology, 4, 1-14. Holmes, D. (1990). The Evidence for Repression: An Examination of Sixty Years of Research. (found in) J. Springer (Ed.). Repression and Dissociation: Implications for Personality, Theory, Psychopathology, and Health (pp. 85-102). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Loftus, E.F. (1993). The Reality of Repressed Memories. American Psychologist, 48, 518-537. Phillips, C. (2000). Lecture notes, Ch. 3, Ch. 7, general lecture.

Assignment 1 Essays (696 words) - Economics, Demand, Economy

Assignment 1 2- Price Qd Qs 2 88 34 4 76 40 6 64 46 8 52 52 10 40 58 12 28 64 20320016250500 100 3966273163403862002154100 80DS 60 40 20 28936951085850 2 4 6 8 10 12 5-law of demand: the claim that the quantity demanded of a good falls when the price of the good raises ,other factors remain same. -Assumptions: 1-income level should remain constant. 2-tastes of the buyers should not alter. 3-prices of other goods should remain constant. 4-no new substitutes for the commodity. 5-price rise in future should not be expected. 6-advertising expenditure should remain the same.-The demand curve shows how price effect quantity demanded other thing being equal. Increase in of buyers, increases quantity demanded at each price, shifts D curve to the right. Increase in income causes shifts D curves for inferior goods to the left. Price of related goods. Tastes. Expectations. 7-price control: intervention by a government to set the price in a market or limit its movement, thus attempting to override the market mechanism. 1-with a binding price floor, excess supply will exist,firms will have unsold output they must sore. This is a surplus. 2-with a binding price ceiling, excess demand will exist. In absence of equilibrium, the number of goods exchanged will be whichever is fewer,Qd or Qs at that price. In the short run,it leads to rise of black market of the commodity. Thus it leads firms not to innovate their products in the long run, because firms don't have any incentive of more profits due to price controls in the market. 8-price elasticity. Income elasticity. Cross price elasticity. 11- TC = 100 + 5Q + 2.5Q2 (Q= 10 Units) a. TC = 400 b. TFC = 100 c. TVC=300 d. MC = 10 e. ATC =40 12- Major conditions for esteem isolation Condition 1: There must be some disfigurement of the market. On the off chance that there were flawless rivalry, regard disengagement would be remarkable since the individual maker could have no impact on cost. At any rate some level of constraining arrangement of activity power is thusly essential with the target that makers have some capacity to make as opposed to take the market cost. Condition 2: The isolating supplier must have the ability to part the market into specific ranges and keep them separated, with the true objective that it is difficult to trade the merchant's thing beginning with one section then onto the following i.e. there must be no "spillage" between business divisions as in stock can be obtained in the more affordable market and re-sold in the dearer. Condition 3: Incurred significant damage adaptability of eagerness for each market must be unmistakable; if this were the situation , the confining provider would manufacture brought in the market with an inelastic request bend, and reduce cost where request is versatile to develop mean pay and favorable circumstances. On the off chance that the adaptability of excitement for each market was the same at every last regard, an ordinary cost would be charged in both markets as this cost would address the favorable position expanding cost in each market where MC = MR. You may wish to propose back at this phase to where we examined the relationship between regard flexibility of interest and aggregate wage Influence on customer welfare. Consumer surplus is decreased all things considered - addressing lost welfare. For most of buyers, the esteem charged is well over the minor cost of supply. However a couple of customers who can now buy the thing at a lower cost may benefit. Cut down wage buyers may be "esteemed into the market" if the supplier is excited and prepared to charge them less. Greater access to these organizations may yield external preferences (positive externalities) improving social welfare and esteem. Drugs associations may legitimize offering things at swelled expenses in higher-wage countries since they can then contribute comparable medicines to patients poorer countriesProducer surplus and the use of advantagePrice detachment benefits associations through higher salaries and advantages. A isolating forcing plan of action is removing client surplus and changing it into supernormal advantage/creator overabundance. Question (7): https://www.coursehero.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuYzCo43v0wIV753tCh29ZgGzEAAYASAAEgJFOvD_BwE

Free Essays on Handicapped

The Home for Handicapped Children and Young People in Veternik is the social welfare institution. The Assembly of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina established it on December 20th, 1971 and it started working in February 1972 with 210 protà ©gà ©s. The growth and development of the Home has been summarised in several pictures by the philosopher, Prof. Aleksandar Becin: Having in mind the position I occupied for more than three decades in the system of social welfare in the Province (Vojvodina) and, among other things, the official contacts I had had with the Specialised Institute in Veternik from its establishment all until recently, there is no doubt that I could validly testify about the whole development of this institution. For the period until 1992, with all the recognition (construction of buildings, establishment of services, involvement of a number of protà ©gà ©s in the work of several workshops, occasional organisation of successful cultural and sports manifestations and meetings with users of similar institutions etc.) it would be a sad picture depicting the conditions of everyday life of children. Now, within the last 6-7 years a marvellous paradox has been happening: during the severest social crisis the unseen rise is recorded, as well as transformation and achievements in all conditions and aspects of work of the Institute and in the life of children in general. The Institute has grown into one of the most representative institutions of this kind in the country, according to the level of material and expert equipment, organisation and rich contents and the atmosphere in work and life. It is the matter of buildings and space in general, housing, clothing, food, hygiene and health protection, special nursing and rehabilitation, occupational and cultural-entertainment and recreational activities etc. They installed their own heating system of rooms that are now clean and neat. In the previously empty yard that wa... Free Essays on Handicapped Free Essays on Handicapped The Home for Handicapped Children and Young People in Veternik is the social welfare institution. The Assembly of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina established it on December 20th, 1971 and it started working in February 1972 with 210 protà ©gà ©s. The growth and development of the Home has been summarised in several pictures by the philosopher, Prof. Aleksandar Becin: Having in mind the position I occupied for more than three decades in the system of social welfare in the Province (Vojvodina) and, among other things, the official contacts I had had with the Specialised Institute in Veternik from its establishment all until recently, there is no doubt that I could validly testify about the whole development of this institution. For the period until 1992, with all the recognition (construction of buildings, establishment of services, involvement of a number of protà ©gà ©s in the work of several workshops, occasional organisation of successful cultural and sports manifestations and meetings with users of similar institutions etc.) it would be a sad picture depicting the conditions of everyday life of children. Now, within the last 6-7 years a marvellous paradox has been happening: during the severest social crisis the unseen rise is recorded, as well as transformation and achievements in all conditions and aspects of work of the Institute and in the life of children in general. The Institute has grown into one of the most representative institutions of this kind in the country, according to the level of material and expert equipment, organisation and rich contents and the atmosphere in work and life. It is the matter of buildings and space in general, housing, clothing, food, hygiene and health protection, special nursing and rehabilitation, occupational and cultural-entertainment and recreational activities etc. They installed their own heating system of rooms that are now clean and neat. In the previously empty yard that wa...

Warner Bros Values in the Production Setting Term Paper

Warner Bros Values in the Production Setting - Term Paper Example Warner Bros had been engaged in production and focused on a mentioned theme that upheld the production motive. The trend had to be set in Hollywood to predict the efforts applied by variable production companies. Crime and survival measures had been the strategies applied in Warner Bros and the developed gangster film proved the specialized theme applied. The production focused on self-styled, which are referred to as blue-collar champions who had the message to pass during the period marred with depression in society. The upright means to acquire wealth had failed and left the solution to be in crime, which had been the norm during the period (Jowett, 1988). The movie had been the reflection of the actual events depicted within the society that had made the headlines in the newspapers. Tom had grown to find crime as the best solution when he joined the gangsters at a young age. The thieves had taught him the value presented in the easier articulation of wealth that had been used to progress in the unjust society. He grows up to pick the vice as the chief leader in the gang to acquire his riches through unlawful methods that had been the setback to progress. The movie had been set in a growing city where criminal activities thrived in the darkness as the sole platform for presenting criminal behavior (Leff & Jerrold, 1988). Hollywood had delivered the need to present specialization in movie production to regulate the costs used in completing the production of a movie. Warner Bros values in the production setting revealed the struggle of the majority in articulating survival measures within society. The movie industry has been advanced to predict the social events that reflect the behavior of the individuals within the society. The norm presented has led to the estab lishment of guidelines to be met to complete the existence on a stable platform. Movie production has reflected the behavior of humanity and set the lifestyle that has been recorded to promise the majority of the benefits towards sustenance of the available entities.

Foucault Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Foucault - Essay Example This evolution of his theory can be traced from 1960's to 1980's and reveal a pattern of study of how power influences decision-making. In 1960's he uses terms like 'contestation' and 'transgression' and uses them interchangeably. In 1970's Foucault moved to 'struggle' and 'resistance' which are again synonymous. And finally in 1980's he used the term 'agonism'. All these terms used through a period of time defining his core focus on the play of resistance, and Foucault's conceptualization of power rather than strict references made to limits. (AMOUDI) Foucault's power-resistance relation is a dynamic analysis of the modern day world. The groundwork of the role of power being laid in the previous theories which evolved between 1960's and 1970's, the economics of power has been more rigorously presented in these theories. Michel Foucault goes further to give a definition of power relations in an essay published in 1982: 'The exercise of power is not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective; it is a way in which certain actions modify others' Although the exercise of power may need violence or consent, these are not inherent to a power relation. Moreover, one of the consequences of this limit to power is that resistance is the sine qua non condition for power. Indeed, a power relation, is not an action which determines another action, but an action which influences an other action by determining a field of possibility for it. In this field of possibility, ways of resisting are by definition present. The second limit set to power relations, therefore, is fight. According to Foucault, the goal of a fight is either to force the opponent to abandon the game (hence a victory which dissolves the power relation) or to set up a new relation of power. In other words, there is circularity between power relations open to fight and a fight aiming at power relations. Therefore there is a constant instability in a power relationship which excludes by definition any form of determinism. By stressing the ontological link between power and resistance, Foucault invites us to understand his reading of the mechanisms of power h e highlights. Power is to be understood then as a form of power, which is perpetually confronted with potential (and some time actual) resistance. (AMOUDI) In his book Order of Things and Foucault Reader, he addresses the power of observation and the impact of it on the observed. He emphasizes that observing people and judging them requires a degree of conformity, which is less obvious and subsequently, according to Foucault more powerful because of its restrained state. This same impact is seen in Panopticism where Foucault shows a transition in prison systems from physical manipulation to implicit manipulation. This new form of control is implemented through a physical construction that creates the illusion of continual surveillance. This surveillance creates the impetus for self-control. It is the power of being observed which places the role of control on the subjects. People control themselves out of a desire not to be looked down upon - to control their own public reputations. Panopticism works in a similar way - by continual observation or the illusion of continual observation, people are expected to continually discipline thems elves so as to avoid being disciplined by an external source (Foucault & Rabinow) The power which is

Use of neologisms in legal translation Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Use of neologisms in legal translation - Essay Example This research will begin with the statement that the difficulties in legal translation from one original term to another in consideration of â€Å"cultural asymmetry† between different legal systems of which one country or group of nations’ legal concepts as well as courtroom procedures have been formed by their own history and experience. Likewise, these established legal concepts are not always, if at all, shared by other countries or nations and states of which target language for translation may be necessary. Once specific observation was that of Stern where there are acknowledgment and accommodation of other cultures in the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) but these â€Å"other cultures† were not able to experience equal status with the Anglo-Saxon legal and communicative culture dominating the Tribunal. While it is generally understood that legal language is accepted by the precision of its legal terms predominantly generic and c onnotative so that they are not decoded by a simple process of one-to-one relationship in linguistics, Newmark and Baker also pointed out that the relative accuracy of legal or lexical equivalent was problematic in the translation and interpretation process. Local courts may employ the essential capabilities of legal professionals and the judiciary, but there are growing occurrences and instances that foreign as well as internationally accepted laws are a necessity in order to provide legal solutions to local cases, and vice versa. The quality of interpretation, then, as well as the exigency of justice becomes dependent on the interpreter, or how legal translation is undergone, presented and used. This paper will try to explore the use of neologism in legal translation with close reference to Rene de Groot's article "Title" and (year, PLEASE SUPPLY, ALSO UNDER REFERENCE) as well as to other available resources. Discussion: Whereas Swiss linguist Ferdinand de Saussure argued that "Language is a system of interdependent terms in which the value of each term results solely from the simultaneous presence of the others ... Content is really fixed only by the concurrence of everything that exists outside it. Being part of a system, it is endowed not only with a signification but also and especially with a value," (qtd. Noth, 1990, p 61), we are then presented with technical connection of words between and amongst themselves which altogether changes when used with other words. This alone as well as cultural differences provide a difficulty in the manner of translating legal terms which this paper explores. Already, in a study conducted by Stern (2004), it was acknowledged that the lack of exact legal equivalents between languages, in this context English and French or Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian (BCS), was an obstacle and a very difficult aspect of translation. Given examples "for everyday terms and concepts, such as allegations, cross-examination, pre-trial, to plead guilty/not guilty, beyond any reasonable doubt or balance of probability (and) cognates such as appeal, charges, objection," (Stern, 2004) proved to have different significance in the target language/s and presented discrepancies in the translation of official legal documents, as well as judgments. Weston (1983 p 207), himself pointed out that, "It is no business of the translator's to create a new word or expression if the SL [source language] expression can be adequately and conveniently translated by using one of the foregoing methods" of which methods were enumerated as: 1. equivalent notions 2. literal translations 3. leaving the term un-translated. De Groot, nevertheless, presented three solutions as: 1. Do not translate and use the target language the original or transcribed term from the source language. If necessary one explains the notion between brackets or in a foot-note by using a 'literal translation' or by using a remark as 'comparable with

Change Management Plan to Reduce Medication Errors

Change Management Plan to Reduce Medication Errors Assignment 2 Change Management Plan: reducing medication errors by building a dual medication error reporting system with a ‘no fault, no blame’ culture Introduction Medication errors in hospitals are found to be the most common health-threatening mistakes made in Australia (Victoria Quality Council, n.d.). Adverse events caused by medication errors can affect patient care, leading to increased mortality rates, lengthy hospital stays and higher health costs (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2012). Although it is absolutely impossible to eliminate all medication errors as human errors can occur, reporting errors is fundamental to error prevention. â€Å"Ramifications of errors can provide critical information to inform the modification or creation of policies and procedures for averting similar errors from harming future patients† (Hughes, 2008, p. 334). Thus, it highlights the importance of change management to provide a reporting system for effective error reporting. In this paper, the author is going to explore current incident-reporting systems and discuss the potential benefit of a dual medication-error reporting system, wit h a ‘no fault, no blame’ culture through a literature review, followed by a clear rationale for the necessity of a change management plan to be in place. Lippitt’s Seven Steps of Change theory will be demonstrated in detail with clear strategies suggested for assessing the plan outcomes. Finally, the main issues will be summarised with an insightful conclusion. Discussion Medicines are the most common treatment used in the Australian healthcare system, which can make great contributions in relieving symptoms and preventing or treating illness (Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, 2010). However, because medicines are so prevalently used, incidences of errors associated with the use of medicine are also high (Aronson, 2009). Over 770,000 people are harmed or die each year in hospital due to adverse drug events, which can cost up to 5.6 million dollars per year per hospital. Medication errors account for one out of 854 inpatient deaths and it is notable that the number of medication error-related death is higher than motor vehicle accidents, breast cancers and AIDS mortality (Hughes, 2008). Reporting enables a platform for errors to be documented and analysed to evaluate causes and create strategies to improve safety. A qualitative study (Victoria Quality Council, n.d) was conducted to survey the current medication error reporting systems in both metropolitan and rural hospitals in Victoria. Most hospitals prefer the report to be named as it allows follow-up of the incidents, whereas only a small proportion of hospitals use anonymous reporting to alleviate the barrier of reporting yet the correlation with actual errors has been low. In addition, a majority of hospitals acknowledged that near misses are supposed to be recorded but are rarely documented (). It is clear that errors and near misses are key to improve safety, so they should be reported regardless of whether an error resulted in patient harm. A near-miss error that has the potential to cause a serious event does not negate the fact that it was and still is an error. Reporting near misses is invaluable to reveal hidden danger. Hughes (2008) pointed out that the majority believes a mandatory, non-confidential incident report system could lead to and encourage lawsuits thus a reduced frequency of error reports resulted. A voluntary and confidential reporting system is preferred, which encourages the reporting of near misses and generates accurate error reports. However there is concern that with voluntary reporting, the true frequency of both errors and near misses could be much higher than what is actually reported (White, 2011). Thus, it can be concluded that a dual system combining both, mandatory and voluntary mechanisms might improve reporting. Although nurses should not be blamed or punished for medication errors, they are accountable for own actions. Therefore, reporting errors should not attribute blamed individuals but to ‘hold providers accountable for performance† and â€Å"provide information that leads to improved safety† (Hughes, 2008). Individuals and organisations attention needs to be drawn toward improving the error reporting system, which means to ‘ focus on a bad system more than bad people’ (Wachter, 2009). Reporting of errors should be encouraged by creating a ‘no fault no blame’ culture. Rationale: Medication errors can occur as a result of human mistakes or system errors. Every medication error can be associated with more than one error-producing condition, such as staff being busy, tired and engaging in mutule tasks (Cheragi, Manoocheri, Mohammadnejad Ehsani, 2013). Nurses are mostinvolvedat themedication administrationphase and are the last people involved in the drug delivery system. It becomes the nurses’ responsibility to double check prior to the administration of medication and to capture any potential drug error that might be made by the prescribing doctor or pharmacy. Whether the nurse is the source or an observer of a medication error, organisations rely on nurses as front-line staff to report medication errors (Hartnell, MacKinnon, Sketris, Fleming, 2012). When things go wrong, the most common initial reaction is to conceal the mistake. Not surprisingly, most errors are only reported when a patient is seriously harmed or when the error could not be easily covered up (Hughes, 2008). Reporting potentially harmful errors before harm is done, is as important as reporting the ones that harm patients. The barriers to error reporting can be attributed to the workplace culture of blame and punishment. Blaming someone does not change those contributing factors and a similar error is likely to reoccur. Adverse drug events caused by medication errors are costly, preventable and potentially avoidable (Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, 2009). Thus, it is essential that interventions to be implemented must ensure a competent and safe medication delivery system. To do so, change is needed; to adopt a dual medication error reporting system with a ‘no fault, no blame’ culture in Holmesglen Hospital. Change Management Plan: The Nursing role has evolved to match the ongoing growth of the Australian health-care delivery system. There is a trend for nurses to take responsibility for facilitating positive change in areas related to health (Steanncyk, Hancock Meadows, 2013). Nurses play the role of change agents which is vital for the effective provision of quality healthcare. There are many ways to implement changes in the work environment. Lippitt’s Seven Steps of Change theory is one of the approaches believed to be more useful as it incorporates a detailed, step by step plan of how to generate change (Mitchell, 2013). There are seven phases in the theory: Phase 1: The Change management plan begins at this phase to provide a detailed diagnosis of what the problem is. No matter what reporting procedures are in place, they may capture only a fraction of actual errors (Montesi Lechi, 2009). Reporting medication errors remain dependent on the nurses’ decision making, and the nurses may be hesitant or avoidant to report errors due to fear of consequences. A combination of mandatory and voluntaryreport system is suggested with a ‘no fault no blame’ approach to reduce cultural and psychological barrier (Hughes, 2008). Both statistical review and one to one informal interviews can help to identify areas that need attention and improvement. An open door policy and disclosure preferences for nurses who want to express their concerns, either to a nurse unit manager, a nurse in charge, a supervisor, a senior or a nurse representative or a colleague are all suitable. This approach can be effective in exploring and uncovering deep-seated emotions, motivations and attitudes when dealing with sensitive matters (). Statistical review, such as RiskMan reviews, is a useful tool to capture and classify medication errors (Riskman, 2011). Holmesglen hospital are conducting bi-monthly statistic reviews to gather information on the contributing factors of medication errors, by aiming to target system issues that could contribute to the error made by individuals, and make a change at organisational levels. For example, if medication errors are constantly caused by staff who are distracted or exhausted, staffing lev els and break times will be reviewed. Phase 2: At this stage, motivation and capacity to change are assessed. It involves small group activities such as staff meetings or medication in-services and all nursing staff are invited. Feedback can be given either directly (face to face) or in-directly (survey) and nursing staff knowledge, desire and skills necessary for the change as well as their attitude for change are assessed. Staff motivation can be reflected through rates of meeting attendance, number of submitted surveys, or number of staff who actively participated in the meeting discussion. Nurses who have good insight and are actively involved in the meeting are the ‘driving forces’ which will facilitate the process of change management; nurses who are hesitant or adverse to change are the resisting forces, in which force-field analysis can be used to counter this resistance (Mitchell, 2013). Force-field analysis is a framework for problem solving. For example, with the health budget crisis we face today in Australia, many hospitals and units may have financial restrains and are incapable of maintaining the flow of the change process. In the meetings, financial issues can be brought up at organisational levels that making change is necessary for both better patient outcomes and reducing unnecessary healthcare costs. Phase 3: With the motivation and capacity levels addressed, determining who the change agent is and whether the change agent has the ability to make a change. Change agents can be any enthusiastic person who has great interest, has a genuine desire and commitment to see positive change. Daisy is a full time associated nurse unit manager (ANUM) employed by Holmesglen hospital for some years. As she has a background of being a pharmacist, part of her role includes providing drug advice to nurses. During her weekly medication review, Daisy noticed that medication errors have been frequently occurring but there is little correlation with the actual reports submitted. Daisy decided to run in-service sessions and all nurses are invited to attend. Daisy discussed her change management plan with the nurse unit manager who also expressed interest and agreed to provide human resources and reasonable financial support. Another four ANUM also expressed interest and commitment. It has been arrang ed that two ANUM to attend the in-service at each time. Phase 4: The in-service is designed to be running for 6 months from September 15th 2014 to March 15th 2015 on monthly basis. Daisy will be holding the in-service and other ANUM will provide assistance in implementing the change plan. The in-service will consist of two parts and run for two hours. The first hour will be a review of the performance of the last month along with relevant statistics. The second hour will be self-reflection and discussion. All participants will be paid for attendance and encouraged to complete an anonymous survey monthly. Phase 5: Daisy is the leader of the change agents responsible for conducting in-services, collating information regarding medication safety, and summarising data with the assistance of ANUM. Meanwhile, Daisy and all the ANUM are the senior staff responsible for providing supervision and support to junior staff and other nurses. A monthly summary report of performance is submitted to the leader for review and monthly meetings are held among senior groups to review the effectiveness of the change management plan and adjust and modify the current plan if needed. Phase 6: A communication folder will be used to update nurses about past meetings. A drop box is available in the staff room for anonymous suggestion and complaints, which can only be accessed by Daisy and the other 4 ANUM. All suggestions and complaints will be responded with two weeks of submission in written form and available in the staff room for all staff to read in the feedback section in the communication folder. Phase 7: The change management plan will be evaluated at the end of the 6 month period the 30th of March 2015, to determine whether the change management plan has been effective. The evaluating process can be done through audit or feedback. The change agent will withdraw from the leader position after the final meeting but still work on the ward to provide ongoing consultation. The four ANUM will take over the role to ensure a good standard is maintained. The drop box will remain available for any further issues identified in the work place. Clear strategies for assessing the plan outcomes As previously mentioned, a final evaluation will be conducted after the final in-service utilising two main approaches to assess the plan outcome auditing and feedback. Auditing includes internal review and an external audit; feedback consists of nursing staff feedback and patients report. An internal review will be conducted four times through the following year. The ANUM are assigned to conduct the review. The Review includes comparing the medication charts with the incident reports to assess any correlation. For example, an omitted dose is considered a reportable mediation error and an incident report should exist correlatively. An external medication audit will be conducted by an external professional to provide a true and fair reflection of the situation (). It can occur annually, not only to assess the plan outcome, but to also monitor practices and identify areas for improvement. Frequency of auditing will depend on the rate of staff changing. However, every newly employed nurse will be given a printout to familiarise themselves with the change that has been made with an open-door policy encouraging queries. If significant non-compliance is identified in the auditing, it is suggested that the first phase of change management plan should be repeated to assess the necessity for modification of the current plan (Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, 2014a). The drop box will still be available for anyone who experiences or witnesses medication errors, or have a better suggestion to improve practice. Submission is anonymous and confidential. Only the ANUM have access. Public feedback will be given to complaints and suggestions in a timely manner and in the form of a printout for all staff to read. Patients can be a source of reporting medication errors as some of them know what their regular medications are. Also, new side effects experienced by patients can reflect the inappropriate use of medication. Conclusion-highlight main issues 250 Need to be completed Barriers to report errors must be breached to accomplish a safer medication administration system. Reporting medication errors and near misses through an established reporting system can provide opportunities to reduce similar errors in the further nursing practice and alleviate costs involved in such adverse events. Several factors are necessary in the change management plan: a leader that is motivated and committed to make a change; a reporting system that makes nursing staff feel safe;

Egypt: The Gift Of The Nile :: essays research papers

The Nile, is the longest river in the world, and is located in northeastern Africa. Its principal source is Lake Victoria, in east central Africa. The Nile flows north through Uganda, Sudan, and Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea, with a total distance of 5584 km. From its remotest headstream in Burundi, the river is 6671 km long. The river basin covers an area of more than 3,349,000 sq km. Not only is the Nile considered a wonder by Herodotus, but by people all over the world, due to its impotance to the growth of a civilization.The first great African civilization developed in the northern Nile Valley in about 5000 BC. Dependent on agriculture, this state, called Egypt, relied on the flooding of the Nile for irrigation and new soils. It dominated vast areas of northeastern Africa for millennia. Ruled by Egypt for about 1800 years, the Kush region of northern Sudan subjugated Egypt in the 8th century BC. Pyramids, temples, and other monuments of these civilizations blanket the river valley in Egypt and northern Sudan.To Egypt, the Nile is seen as the fountain of life. Every year, between the months of June and October, the great rivers of the Nile rush north, and flood the highlands of Etiopia. The flooding surges of the land, and leaves behind water for the people, and fertile land, which can be used for agriculture. The impact the Nile has on Egypt during the ancient times and present are consierably apparent. The influence the Nile has is so extensive, that even the speech is transposed. For example, "To go north" in the Egyption language is the same as, "to go down stream"; "to go south" the same as "to go upstream." Also, the term for a "foreign country" in Egypt would be used as "highland" or "desert", because the only mountains or deserts would be far away, and foreign to them. The Nile certainly had an exceptional influence on Egypts, both lifestyle and thinking.The Nile also forced a change on the political system and ruling in Egypt. Because of the vast floods every year, the country needed a ruler that was capable of enforcing of the farmings and methods used. Such as the hoarding of the water and the stocking of the food harvested. Second, only a stongly cetralized administration could manafe the economy properly.

College Dorm vs Apartment

Going off to college after eighteen year of rules and restrictions underneath your parents’ roof can be a very exciting experience, but is it all that it appears to be? There are many pros and cons when it comes to both living at home, and in a college dorm. Fortunately for me I have been able to experience living in all three and I can definitely say that living in a college dorm is the better option. At first glance a college dorm seems like the best thing that has ever happened to you especially since you will no longer have your parents there to nag you. There are many obvious advantages to living in a college dorm.One of these advantages is the most obvious, you don’t have to follow all the rules that your parents have laid out for you, of course there will still be rules in your dorm but you will still have a sense freedom. There will always be rules in society so you can never escape that. Another major advantage of moving away to a college dorm would definitely be the experience. When I went off to college I met so many different people, learned so many knew things, and had many experiences that I will remember forever. Another pro of living in a dorm is that you finally get to learn how to be independent and truly take care of yourself. Mom won’t be there to wash your clothes or cook for you, so you easily gain knowledge on how to fend for yourself. Lastly, I feel an advantage of living in a dorm is that you learn how to prioritize and be more. You won’t have the luxury of your parents telling you to do your homework, so being away gives you a sense of responsibility and it is basically up to you to make the right decisions. Along with the pros there are always cons. Living in a college dorm is not always the best option. There are definitely setbacks involved in living away from home. A major disadvantage is that college life can be very distracting. There are always going to be parties and other fun things going on which can easy take your mind away from that assignment you have due in the morning. Living in a dorm can possibly jeopardize your GPA. (unknown, 2005, para. 3) A college dorm can also be a disadvantage if you have a horrible roommate. You no longer have the luxury of having your own space which can be very uncomfortable, or even cause another distraction. Living in a dorm room can also be very costly, even if you don’t use all that you are paying for. For example you may pay for a meal plan, but not as much food as you are paying for. (Bram, 2011, para. 9) Although I would definitely choose living in a dorm versus staying at home, there is also a plus to staying under your parent’s roof. The number one advantage of staying at home, in my opinion, is that you have the opportunity to save extraordinary amounts of money. You don’t have to worry about the cost of the dorm, food or any other expenses and you could also get a job. Going away to college is very expensive, so staying at home just a little while longer definitely won’t hurt you or your parents’ pockets. With that being said, we can get a little too comfortable with not having to worry about things financially which can keep us wanting to stay at home longer. The longer you stay at home, the harder it will be to leave later, which I find to be a major con. If for some reason staying at home for a longer time becomes the only option for you, at least you will always be focused. Not being around your peers constantly can absolutely keep you focused, not to mention your parents who will consistently be on your back about keeping grades up. Staying at home is a major advantage when it comes to doing well. Sometimes you have to really list out the positive and negative things about a particular subject to find what the best option for you would be. When it comes to living in a dorm you have freedom and gain experience, but it can be costly. When it comes to living at home you will be more likely to perform better in school, but you will have to abide by your parents rules even as an adult. I looked at all of the pros and cons of each, and still believe that living in a college dorm is a better option, not only for the experience, but because it helps to better prepare you for the future.

Definition and Examples of a Transition in Composition

Definition and Examples of a Transition in Composition In English grammar, a transition is a connection (a word, phrase, clause, sentence, or entire paragraph) between two parts of a piece of writing, contributing to cohesion. Transitional devices include pronouns, repetition, and transitional expressions, all of which are illustrated below. Pronunciation: trans-ZISH-en EtymologyFrom the Latin, to go across Examples and Observations Example:  At first  a toy,  then  a mode of transportation for the rich, the automobile was designed as mans mechanical servant.  Later  it became part of the pattern of living. Here are some examples and insights from other writers: A transition should be short, direct, and almost invisible.Gary Provost, Beyond Style: Mastering the Finer Points of Writing. Writers Digest Books, 1988)A transition is anything that links one sentence- or paragraph- to another. Nearly every sentence, therefore, is transitional. (In that sentence, for example, the linking or transitional words are sentence, therefore, and transitional.) Coherent writing, I suggest, is a constant process of transitioning.(Bill Stott, Write to the Point: And Feel Better About Your Writing, 2nd ed. Columbia University Press, 1991) Repetition and Transitions   In this example, transitions are repeated in the prose: The way I write is who I am, or have become, yet this is a case in which I wish I had instead of words and their rhythms a cutting room, equipped with an Avid, a digital editing system on which I could touch a key and collapse the sequence of time, show you simultaneously all the frames of memory that come to me now, let you pick the takes, the marginally different expressions, the variant readings of the same lines. This is a case in which I need more than words to find the meaning. This is a case in which I need whatever it is I think or believe to be penetrable, if only for myself. (Joan Didion, The Year of Magical Thinking, 2006) Pronouns and Repeated Sentence Structures Grief turns out to be a place none of us know until we reach it. We anticipate (we know) that someone close to us could die, but we do not look beyond the few days or weeks that immediately follow such an imagined death. We misconstrue the nature of even those few days or weeks. We might expect if the death is sudden to feel shock. We do not expect this shock to be obliterative, dislocating to both body and mind. We might expect that we will be prostrate, inconsolable, crazy with loss. We do not expect to be literally crazy, cool customers who believe that their husband is about to return. (Joan Didion, The Year of Magical Thinking, 2006)When you find yourself having difficulty moving from one section of an article to the next, the problem might be due to the fact that you are leaving out information. Rather than trying to force an awkward transition, take another look at what you have written and ask yourself what you need to explain in order to move on to your next section.(Gary Pr ovost, 100 Ways to Improve Your Writing. Mentor, 1972) Tips on Using Transitions After you have developed your essay into something like its final shape, you will want to pay careful attention to your transitions. Moving from paragraph to paragraph, from idea to idea, you will want to use transitions that are very clear- you should leave no doubt in your readers mind how you are getting from one idea to another. Yet your transitions should not be hard and monotonous: though your essay will be so well-organized you may easily use such indications of transitions as one, two, three or first, second, and third, such words have the connotation of the scholarly or technical article and are usually to be avoided, or at least supplemented or varied, in the formal composition. Use one, two, first, second, if you wish, in certain areas of your essay, but also manage to use prepositional phrases and conjunctive adverbs and subordinate clauses and brief transitional paragraphs to achieve your momentum and continuity. Clarity and variety together are what you want. (Winston W eathers and Otis Winchester, The New Strategy of Style. McGraw-Hill, 1978) Space Breaks as Transitions Transitions are usually not that interesting. I use space breaks instead, and a lot of them. A space break makes a clean segue whereas some segues you try to write sound convenient, contrived. The white space sets off, underscores, the writing presented, and you have to be sure it deserves to be highlighted this way. If used honestly and not as a gimmick, these spaces can signify the way the mind really works, noting moments and assembling them in such a way that a kind of logic or pattern comes forward, until the accretion of moments forms a whole experience, observation, state of being. The connective tissue of a story is often the white space, which is not empty. There’s nothing new here, but what you don’t say can be as important as what you do say. (Amy Hempel, interviewed by Paul Winner. The Paris Review, Summer 2003)

Extreme conditional value at risk a coherent scenario for risk management The WritePass Journal

Extreme conditional value at risk a coherent scenario for risk management CHAPTER ONE Extreme conditional value at risk a coherent scenario for risk management CHAPTER ONE1. INTRODUCTION1.1.BACKGROUND1.2   RSEARCH PROBLEM1.3   RELEVENCE OF THE STUDY1.4   RESEARCH DESIGNCHAPTER 2: RISK MEASUREMENT AND THE EMPIRICALDISTRIBUTION OF FINANCIAL RETURNS2.1   Risk Measurement in Finance: A Review of Its Origins2.2   Value-at-risk (VaR)2.2.1 Definition and concepts2.2.2 Limitations of VaR2.3   Conditional Value-at-Risk2.4   The Empirical Distribution of Financial Returns2.4.1   The Importance of Being Normal2.4.2 Deviations From NormalityCHAPTER 3: EXTREME VALUE THEORY: A SUITABLE AND ADEQUATE FRAMEWORK?1.3. Extreme Value Theory3.1. The Block of Maxima Method3.2.  Ã‚   The Generalized Extreme Value Distribution3.2.1. Extreme Value-at-Risk3.2.2.   Extreme Conditional Value-at-Risk (ECVaR): An Extreme Coherent Measure of RiskCHAPTER 4: DATA DISCRIPTION.CHAPTER 5: DISCUSION OF EMPIRICAL RESULTSCHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS  References Related CHAPTER ONE 1. INTRODUCTION Extreme financial losses that occurred during the 2007-2008 financial crisis reignited questions of whether existing methodologies, which are largely based on the normal distribution, are adequate and suitable for the purpose of risk measurement and management. The major assumptions employed in these frameworks are that financial returns are independently and identically distributed, and follow the normal distribution. However, weaknesses in these methodologies has long been identified in the literature. Firstly, it is now widely accepted that financial returns are not normally distributed; they are asymmetric, skewed, leptokurtic and fat-tailed. Secondly, it is a known fact that financial returns exhibit volatility clustering, thus the assumption of independently distributed is violated. The combined evidence concerning the stylized facts of financial returns necessitates the need for adapting existing methodologies or developing new methodologies that will account for all the stylised facts of financial returns explicitly. In this paper, I discuss two related measures of risk; extreme value-at-risk (EVaR) and extreme conditional value-at-risk (ECVaR). I argue that ECVaR is a better measure of extreme market risk than EVaR utilised by Kabundi and Mwamba (2009) since it is coherent, and captures the effects of extreme markets events. In contrast, even though EVaR captures the effect of extreme market events, it is non-coherent. 1.1.BACKGROUND Markowitz (1952), Roy (1952), Shape (1964), Black and Scholes (1973), and Merton’s (1973) major toolkit in the development of modern portfolio theory (MPT) and the field of financial engineering consisted of means, variance, correlations and covariance of asset returns. In MPT, the variance or equivalently the standard deviation was the panacea measure of risk. A major assumption employed in this theory is that financial asset returns are normally distributed. Under this assumption, extreme market events rarely happen. When they do occur, risk managers can simply treat them as outliers and disregard them when modelling financial asset returns. The assumption of normally distributed asset returns is too simplistic for use in financial modelling of extreme market events. During extreme market activity similar to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, financial returns exhibit behavior that is beyond what the normal distribution can model. Starting with the work of Mandelbrot (1963) there is increasingly more convincing empirical evidence that suggest that asset returns are not normally distributed. They exhibit asymmetric behavior, ‘fat tails’ and high kurtosis than the normal distribution can accommodate. The implication is that extreme negative returns do occur, and are more frequent than predicted by the normal distribution. Therefore, measures of risk based on the normal distribution will underestimate the risk of portfolios and lead to huge financial losses, and potentially insolvencies of financial institutions. To mitigate the effects of inadequate risk capital buffers stemming from underestimation of risk by normality-based financial modelling, risk measures such as EVaR that go beyond the assumption of normally distributed returns have been developed. However, EVaR is non-coherent just like VaR from which it is developed. The implication is that, even though it captures the effects of extreme mar ket events, it is not a good measure of risk since it does not reflect diversification – a contradiction to one of the cornerstone of portfolio theory. ECVaR naturally overcomes these problems since it coherent and can capture extreme market events. 1.2   RSEARCH PROBLEM The purpose of this paper is to develop extreme conditional value-at-risk (ECVaR), and propose it as a better measure of risk than EVaR under conditions of extreme market activity with financial returns that exhibit volatility clustering, and are not normally distributed. Kabundi and Mwamba (2009) have proposed EVaR as a better measure of extreme risk than the widely used VaR, however, it is non-coherent. ECVaR is coherent, and captures the effect of extreme market activity, thus it is more suited to model extreme losses during market turmoil, and reflects diversification, which is an important requirement for any risk measure in portfolio theory. 1.3   RELEVENCE OF THE STUDY The assumption that financial asset returns are normally distributed understates the possibility of infrequent extreme events whose impact is more detrimental than that of events that are more frequent. Use of VaR and CVaR underestimate the riskiness of assets and portfolios, and eventually lead to huge losses and bankruptcies during times of extreme market activity. There are many adverse effects of using the normal distribution in the measurement of financial risk, the most visible being the loss of money due to underestimating risk. During the global financial crisis, a number of banks and non-financial institutions suffered huge financial losses; some went bankrupt and failed, partly because of inadequate capital allocation stemming from underestimation of risk by models that assumed normally distributed returns. Measures of risk that do not assume normality of financial returns have been developed. One such measure is EVaR (Kabundi and Mwamba (2009)). EVaR captures the effect of extreme market events, however it is not coherent. As a result, EVaR is not a good measure of risk since it does not reflect diversification. In financial markets characterised by multiple sources of risk and extreme market volatility, it is important to have a risk measure that is coherent and can capture the effect of extreme market activity. ECVaR   is advocated to fulfils this role of ensuring extreme market risk while conforming to portfolio theory’s wisdom of diversification. 1.4   RESEARCH DESIGN Chapter 2 will present a literature review of risk measurement methodologies currently used by financial institutions, in particular, VaR and CVaR. I also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these measures. Another risk measure not widely known thus far is the EVaR. We discuss EVaR as an advancement in risk measurement methodologies. I advocate that EVaR is not a good measure of risk since it is non-coherent. This leads to the next chapter, which presents ECVaR as a better risk measure that is coherent and can capture extreme market events. Chapter 3 will be concerned with extreme conditional value-at-risk (ECVaR) as a convenient modelling framework that naturally overcomes the normality assumption of asset returns in the modelling of extreme market events. This is followed with a comparative analysis of EVaR and ECVaR using financial data covering both the pre-financial crisis and the financial crisis periods. Chapter 4 will be concerned with data sources, preliminary data description, and the estimation of EVaR, and ECVaR. Chapter 5 will discuss the empirical results and the implication for risk measurement. Finally, chapter 6 will give concussions and highlight the directions for future research. CHAPTER 2: RISK MEASUREMENT AND THE EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF FINANCIAL RETURNS 2.1   Risk Measurement in Finance: A Review of Its Origins The concept of risk has been known for many years before Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory (MPT). Bernoulli (1738) solved the St. Petersburg paradox and derived fundamental insights of risk-averse behavior and the benefits of diversification.   In his formulation of expected utility theory, Bernoulli did not define risk explicitly; however, he inferred it from the shape of the utility function (Bulter et al. (2005:134); Brancinger Weber, (1997: 236)). Irving Fisher (1906) suggested the use of variance to measure economic risk. Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) used expected utility theory in the analysis of games and consequently deduced many of the modern understanding of decision making under risk or uncertainty.   Therefore, contrary to popular belief, the concept of risk has been known well before MPT. Even though the concept of risk was known before MPT, Markowitz (1952) first provided a systematic algorithm to measure risk using the variance in the formulation of the mean-variance model for which he won the Nobel Prize in 1990. The development of the mean-variance model inspired research in decision making under risk and the development of risk measures. The study of risk and decision making under uncertainty (which is treated the same as risk in most cases) stretch across disciplines. In decision science and psychology, Coombs and Pruitt (1960), Pruitt (1962), Coombs (1964), Coombs and Meyer (1969), and Coombs and Huang (1970a, 1970b) studied the perception of gambles and how their preference is affected by their perceived risk. In economics, finance and measurement theory, Markowitz (1952, 1959), Tobin (1958), Pratt (1964), Pollatsek Tversky (1970), Luce (1980) and others investigate portfolio selection and the measurement of risk of those portfolios, and gambles in general. T heir collective work produces a number of risk measures that vary in how they rank the riskiness of options, portfolios, or gambles. Though the risk measures vary, Pollatsek and Tversky (1970: 541) recognises that they share the following:   (1) Risk is regarded as a property of choosing among options. (2) Options can be meaningfully ordered according to their riskiness. (3) As suggested by Irving Fisher in 1906, the risk of an option is somehow related to the variance or dispersion in its outcomes. In addition to these basic properties, Markowitz regards risk as a ‘bad’, implying something that is undesirable. Since Markowitz (1952), many risk measures such as the semi-variance, absolute deviation, and the lower semi-variance etc. (see Brachinger and Weber, (1997)) were developed, however, the variance continued to dominate empirical finance. It was in the 1990s that a new measure, VaR was popularised and became industry standard as a risk measure. I present this ris k measure in the next section. 2.2   Value-at-risk (VaR) 2.2.1 Definition and concepts Besides these basic ideas concerning risk measures, there is no universally accepted definition of risk (Pollatsek and Tversky, 1970:541); as a result, risk measures continue to be developed. J.P Morgan Reuters (1996) pioneered a major breakthrough in the advancement of risk measurement with the use of value-at-risk (VaR), and the subsequent Basel committee recommendation that banks could use it for their internal risk management. VaR is concerned with measuring the risk of a financial position due to the uncertainty regarding the future levels of interest rates, stock prices, commodity prices, and exchange rates. The risk resulting in the movement of these market factors is called market risk. VaR is the expected maximum loss of a financial position with a given level of confidence over a specified horizon. VaR provides answers to question: what is the maximum loss that I can lose over, say the next ten days with 99 percent confidence? Put differently, what is the maximum loss that will be exceeded only one percent of the times in the next ten day? I illustrate the computation of VaR using one of the methods that is available, namely parametric VaR. I denote by the rate of return and by the portfolio value at time. Then is given by (1) The actual loss (the negative of the profit, which is) is given by (2) When is normally distributed (as is normally assumed), the variable has a standard normal distribution with mean of and standard deviation of. We can calculate VaR from the following equation: (3) where implies a confidence level. If we assume a 99% confidence level, we have (4) In   we have -2.33 as our VaR at 99% confidence level, and we will exceed this VaR only 1% of the times. From (4), it can be shown that the 99% confidence VaR is given byVaR (5)Generalising from (5), we can state the quantile VaR of the distribution as follows (6)VaR is an intuitive measure of risk that can be easily implemented. This is evident in its wide use in the industry. However, is it an optimal measure? The next section addresses the limitations of VaR. 2.2.2 Limitations of VaR Artzner et al. (1997,1999) developed a set of axioms that if satisfied by a risk measure, then that risk measure is ‘coherent’. The implication of coherent measures of risk is that â€Å"it is not possible to assign a function for measuring risk unless it satisfies these axioms† (Mitra, 2009:8). Risk measures that satisfy these axioms can be considered universal and optimal since they are founded on the same mathematical axioms that are generally accepted. Artzner et al. (1997, 1999) put forward the first axioms of risk measures, and any risk measure that satisfies them is a coherent measure of risk. Letting be a risk measure defined on two portfolios and. Then, the risk measure is coherent if it satisfies the following axioms: (1)  Ã‚   Monotonicity:   if then We interpret the monotonicity axiom to mean that higher losses are associated with higher risk. (2)  Ã‚   Homogeneity:   Ã‚   for; Assuming that there is no liquidity risk, the homogeneity axiom mean that risk is not a function of the quantity of a stock purchased, therefore we cannot reduce or increase risk by investing different amounts in the same stock. (3)  Ã‚   Translation invariance: , where is a riskless security; This means that investing in a riskless asset does not increase risk with certainty. (4)  Ã‚   Sub-additivity:   Possibly the most important axiom, sub-additivity insures that a risk measure reflects diversification – the combined risk of two portfolios is less than the sum of the risks of individual portfolios. VaR does not satisfy the most important axiom of sub-additivity, thus it is non-coherent. More so, VaR tells us what we can expect to lose if an extreme event does not occur, thus it does not tell us the extend of losses we can incur if a â€Å"tail† event occurs. VaR is therefore not optimal measure of risk. The non-coherence, and therefor non-optimality of VaR as a measuring of risk led to the development of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) by Artzner et al. (1997, 1999), and Uryasev and Rockafeller (1999). I discus CVaR in the next section. 2.3   Conditional Value-at-Risk CVaR is also known as â€Å"Expected Shortfall† (ES),     Ã¢â‚¬Å"Tail VaR†, or â€Å"Tail conditional expectation†, and it measures risk beyond VaR. Yamai and Yoshiba (2002) define CVaR as the conditional expectation of losses given that the losses exceed VaR. Mathematically, CVaR is given by the following: (7) CVaR offers more insights concerning risk that VaR in that it tells us what we can expect to lose if the losses exceed VaR. Unfortunately, the finance industry has been slow in adopting CVaR as its preferred risk measure. This is besides the fact that â€Å"the actuarial/insurance community has tended to pick up on developments in financial risk management much more quickly than financial risk managers have picked up on developments in actuarial science† (Dowd and Black (2006:194)). Hopefully, the effects of the financial crisis will change this observation. In much of the applications of VaR and CVaR, returns have been assumed to be normally distributed. However, it is widely accepted that returns are not normally distributed. The implication is that, VaR and CVaR as currently used in finance will not capture extreme losses. This will lead to underestimation of risk and inadequate capital allocation across business units. In times of market stress when extra capital is required, it will be inadequate. This may lead to the insolvency of financial institutions. Methodologies that can capture extreme events are therefore needed. In the next section, I discuss the empirical evidence on financial returns, and thereafter discuss extreme value theory (EVT) as a suitable framework of modelling extreme losses. 2.4   The Empirical Distribution of Financial Returns Back in 1947, Geary wrote, â€Å"Normality is a myth; there never was, and never will be a normal distribution† (as cited by Krishnaiah (1980: 279). Today this remark is supported by a voluminous amount of empirical evidence against normally distributed returns; nevertheless, normality continues to be the workhorse of empirical finance. If the normality assumption fails to pass empirical tests, why are practitioners so obsessed with the bell curve? Could their obsession be justified? To uncover some of the possible responses to these questions, let us first look at the importance of being normal, and then look at the dangers of incorrectly assuming normality. 2.4.1   The Importance of Being Normal The normal distribution is the widely used distribution in statistical analysis in all fields that utilises statistics in explaining phenomenon. The normal distribution can be assumed for a population, and it gives a rich set of mathematical results (Mardia, 1980: 279). In other words, the mathematical representations are tractable, and are easy to implement. The populations can simply be explained by its mean and variance when the normal distribution is assumed. The panacea advantage is that the modelling process under normality assumption is very simple. In fields that deal with natural phenomenon, such as physics and geology, the normal distribution has unequivocally succeeded in explaining the variables of interest. The same cannot be said in the finance field. The normal probability distribution has been subject to rigorous empirical rejection. A number of stylized facts of asset returns, statistical tests of normality and the occurrence of extreme negative returns disputes the normal distribution as the underlying data generating process for asset returns. We briefly discuss these empirical findings next. 2.4.2 Deviations From Normality Ever since Mandelbrot (1963), Fama (1963), Fama (1965) among others, it is a known fact that asset returns are not normally distributed. The combined empirical evidence since the 1960s points out the following stylized facts of asset returns: (1)  Ã‚   Volatility clustering: periods of high volatility tend to be followed by periods of high volatility, and period of low volatility tend to be followed by low volatility. (2)  Ã‚   Autoregressive price changes: A price change depends on price changes in the past period. (3)  Ã‚   Skewness: Positive prices changes and negative price changes are not of the same magnitude. (4)  Ã‚   Fat-tails: The probabilities of extreme negative (positive) returns are much larger than predicted by the normal distribution. (5)  Ã‚   Time-varying tail thickness: More extreme losses occur during turbulent market activity than during normal market activity. (6)  Ã‚   Frequency dependent fat-tails: high frequency data tends to be more fat-tailed than low frequency data. In addition to these stylized facts of asset returns, extreme events of 1974 Germany banking crisis, 1978 banking crisis in Spain, 1990s Japanese banking crisis, September 2001, and the 2007-2008 US experience ( BIS, 2004) could not have happened under the normal distribution. Alternatively, we could just have treated them as outliers and disregarded them; however, experience has shown that even those who are obsessed with the Gaussian distribution could not ignore the detrimental effects of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. With these empirical facts known to the quantitative finance community, what is the motivation for the continued use of the normality assumption? It could be possible that those that stick with the normality assumption know only how to deal with normally distributed data. It is their hammer; everything that comes their way seems like a nail! As Esch (2010) notes, for those that do have other tools to deal with non-normal data, they continue to use the normal distribution on the grounds of parsimony. However, â€Å"representativity should not be sacrificed for simplicity† (Fabozzi et al., 2011:4). Better modelling frameworks to deal with extreme values that are characteristic of departures from normality have been developed. Extreme value theory is one such methodology that has enjoyed success in other fields outside finance, and has been used to model financial losses with success. In the next chapter, I present extreme value-based methodologies as a practical and better methodology to overcome non-normality in asset returns. CHAPTER 3: EXTREME VALUE THEORY: A SUITABLE AND ADEQUATE FRAMEWORK? 1.3. Extreme Value Theory Extreme value theory was developed to model extreme natural phenomena such as floods, extreme winds, and temperature, and is well established in fields such as engineering, insurance, and climatology. It provides a convenient way to model the tails of distributions that capture non-normal activities. Since it concentrates on the tails of distributions, it has been adopted to model asset returns in time of extreme market activity (see Embrechts et al. (1997); McNeil and Frey (2000); Danielsson and de Vries (2000). Gilli and Kellezi (2003) points out two related ways of modelling extreme events. The first way describes the maximum loss through a limit distribution known as the generalised extreme value distribution (GED), which is a family of asymptotic distributions that describe normalised maxima or minima.   The second way provides asymptotic distribution that describes the limit distribution of scaled excesses over high thresholds, and is known as the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD). The two limit distributions results into two approaches of EVT-based modelling the block of maxima method and the peaks over threshold method respectively[2]. 3.1. The Block of Maxima Method Let us consider independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) random variable   with common distribution function â„ ±. Let be the maximum of the first random variables. Also, let us suppose is the upper end of. For, the corresponding results for the minima can be obtained from the following identity (8) almost surely converges to whether it is finite or infinite since, Following Embrechts et al. (1997), and Shanbhang and Rao (2003), the limit theory finds norming constants and a non-degenerate distribution function in such a way that the distribution function of a normalized version of converges to as follows;, as (9) is an extreme value distribution function, and â„ ± is the domain of attraction of, (written as), if equation (2) holds for suitable values of and. It can also be said that the two extreme value distribution functions and belong in the same family if for some   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   and all. Fisher and Tippett (1928), De Haan (1970, 1976), Weissman (1978), and Embrechts et al. (1997) show that the limit distribution function belongs to one of the following three density functions for some. (10) (11) (12) Any extreme value distribution can be classified as one of the three types in (10), (11) and (12).   and   are the standard extreme value distribution and the corresponding random variables are called standard extreme random variables. For alternative characterization of the three distributions, see Nagaraja (1988), and Khan and Beg (1987). 3.2.  Ã‚   The Generalized Extreme Value Distribution The three distribution functions given in (10), (11) and (12) above can be combined into one three-parameter distribution called the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) given by,, with (13) We denote the GEV by, and the values andgive rise to the three distribution functions in (3). In equation (4) above, and represent the location parameter, the scale parameter, and the tail-shape parameter respectively. corresponds to the Frechet, and distributioncorresponds to the Weibull distribution. The case where reduces to the Gumbel distribution. To obtain the estimates of we use the maximum likelihood method, following Kabundi and Mwamba (2009). To start with, we fit the sample of maximum losses to a GEV. Thereafter, we use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the GEV from the logarithmic form of the likely function given by; (14) To obtain the estimates of we take partial derivatives of equation (14) with respect to and, and equating them to zero. 3.2.1. Extreme Value-at-Risk The EVaR defined as the maximum likelihood   quantile estimator of, is by definition given by (15)   The quantity is the quantile of, and I denote it as the alpha percept VaR specified as follows following Kabundi and Mwamba (2009), and Embrech et al. (1997): (16) Even though EVaR captures extreme losses, by extension from VaR it is non-coherent. As such, it cannot be used for the purpose of portfolio optimization since it does not reflect diversification. To overcome this problem, In the next section, I extend CVaR to ECVaR so as to capture extreme losses coherently. 3.2.2.   Extreme Conditional Value-at-Risk (ECVaR): An Extreme Coherent Measure of Risk I extend ECVaR from EVaR in a similar manner that I used to extend CVaR from VaR. ECVaR can therefore be expressed as follows: (17) In the following chapter, we describe the data and its sources. CHAPTER 4: DATA DISCRIPTION. I will use stock market indexes of five advanced economies comprising that of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, and United Kingdom, and five emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Possible sources of data that will be used are I-net Bride, Bloomberg, and individual country central banks. CHAPTER 5: DISCUSION OF EMPIRICAL RESULTS In this chapter, I will discuss the empirical results. Specifically, the adequacy of ECVaR will be discussed relative to that of EVaR. 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